What is Flux?
Flux is decentralized cloud infrastructure. In the centralized world, the equivalents of Flux are Amazon Web Service, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform, which own a 60% market share of cloud infrastructure service providers (in Q2 2022, reported by Statista). When a software developer wants to host and run their software, they could buy FLUX tokens and use the tokens to rent computing power from Flux.Unlike centralized cloud infrastructure, the computing resources that are provided by Flux are not actually provided by the team/company that invented Flux. Instead, computing resources are provided by Flux node operators, and anyone in this world can be a Flux node operator as long as they have the necessary computing resources.
What happened?
On August 22, 2022, the co-founder of Flux, Daniel Keller, hosted the Flux State of Union on YouTube, which projected the revenues of Flux for the first time. During the presentation, Daniel projected the revenues of Flux in the next five years to be:
| Year | Revenue (FLUX) |
|---|---|
| Year 1 | 1,000 |
| Year 2 | 15,000 |
| Year 3 | 50,000 |
| Year 4 | 125,000 |
| Year 5 | 300,000 |
According to BunnyAnalyst, the estimated revenues for Flux is currently sitting at 1778 FLUX, with most revenues coming from Kadena and Presearch projects.
While today's revenue for Flux is already exceeding the projected year 1 revenue, achieving the projected revenues for the next 5 years would mean that Flux needs to grow at a staggering 16,772% in the next five years, or 178% annualized.
Can it be achieved?
One way to estimate the annual revenue for Flux is by using the week-over-week revenue growth of Flux. Based on the diagram above from BunnyAnalyst, the week-over-week revenue growth of Flux is 2.53% currently. If Flux were to grow at that rate for the next 52 weeks, the annual revenue growth rate would be 366%, which is far greater than the projected 178%. However, that estimate has too much Hopium. The week-over-week revenue growth of Flux is going to fluctuate in the next 52 weeks, and there is no guarantee that the rate is always stay at constant.
Realistically, many things have to be done right to achieve the projected revenues. First, Flux needs to make sure that more workloads can be run on the decentralized Flux computing resources. As of today, it is very difficult for a software developer to run their software on Flux securely because all environment variables (which usually store database passwords and API keys) for Docker containers that are running on Flux are publicly visible. Based on the announcement in the State of the Union, the Flux team is currently working on a new feature to address this issue.
In addition, the Flux team needs to develop more features for the computing platform. Based on the announcement in the State of the Union, the Flux team is currently working on supporting Kubernete, which is great, but that is not the only thing that is required to run a piece of software. The team could support the deployment of commonly used, open-source software, such as MongoDB and Apache Kafka, so that more software can be run on Flux.
Summary
In short, the projected revenue of Flux for the next five years can be achieved as long as the Flux team continues to deliver more features and onboard more software developers on the platform. Meanwhile, you could use BunnyAnalyst to track the revenue of Flux and keep the Flux team accountable.
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